The Thirty-Four Scrolls
Double machine learning for targeted email promotions: why the raw numbers lie, which parts of a subject line actually drive sales, and how better targeting earns more.
Projects / Interactive Papers
Interactive Papers
Each paper is retold as a flip-through storybook set in the world of Dungeons & Datasets. Every villain stands for one idea in the paper, and the numbers are the paper's own.
The War of Two Banners
Positive versus negative political ads in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections: negative ads persuade, positive ads bring voters out, and tone alone can swing a close race.
The Oracle's Quill
The sequel to The Thirty-Four Scrolls: using what past emails taught you to judge new subject lines written by generative AI, and knowing when to run a real test instead.
The Giant of the Far Market
Walmart's entry into U.S. grocery: shoppers value nearness as well as price, and rival chains would have built more stores without it, so the real gain is about a fifth of the leading estimate.
The Unreliable Narrators
Can salespeople's CRM activity logs improve sales forecasts? Pooled, they make forecasts slightly worse, but a minority of reps write logs that genuinely see the future.
The Sorting Forest
How to control for group fixed effects in a causal forest, re-estimating whether a credit rating lets firms borrow more: the forest only sees how groups are ranked, so give it each group's fixed-effect coefficient.